Diesel prices have a way of grabbing everyone’s attention, especially when they jump overnight or quietly creep up month after month. If you move freight for a living, fuel costs aren’t just another line item. They shape bids, margins, customer conversations, and long-term planning. In our recent article on how to Beat Diesel Price Spikes, we explored strategies for managing unpredictable costs. But what about what’s ahead?
After a few years of extreme volatility, many carriers and shippers are asking a new question: are diesel fuel prices finally heading toward something more predictable? As we look to 2026, early forecasts suggest the market could be entering a different phase, one defined less by sudden spikes and more by gradual shifts in supply, demand, and energy policy.
Here’s what current projections say about diesel fuel prices in 2026, what could still disrupt those forecasts, and how trucking and logistics leaders can prepare now instead of reacting later.
Why 2026 Could Look Different from Recent Years
Diesel pricing doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It’s closely tied to crude oil markets, global supply/demand trends, geopolitics, and even technological changes like vehicle electrification. Recent forecasts suggest that several of these forces are pushing the market toward a potential easing of diesel prices in 2026.
Lower Crude Oil Prices Driving Down Diesel Costs
One of the biggest influences on diesel price is the price of crude oil, which typically accounts for a significant share of what you pay at the pump. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, helping reduce fuel costs at the retail level. U.S. Energy Information Administration
The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook anticipates that diesel prices could average about $3.50 per gallon in 2026, roughly 7% lower than 2024 averages. Mansfield Energy
If realized, this would represent a meaningful shift from recent years of price volatility — a trend logistics managers and carriers should watch closely.
Global Supply Trends and Oversupply Pressure
Beyond U.S. forecasts, global energy market trends also influence diesel pricing. A recent Reuters analysis highlights that 2026 may be characterized by oversupply in oil markets, with global production outpacing demand growth. Reuters
When supply exceeds demand, inventories rise and pricing pressure intensifies, which can contribute to lower crude oil costs and, by extension, lower distillate products like diesel.
This dynamic could blunt some of the geopolitical risk premiums that have elevated fuel costs in recent years.
Refining Margins and Their Role in Diesel Costs
However, lower diesel prices at the pump aren’t guaranteed to fall as sharply as crude oil prices. One reason is refining margins (the difference between crude costs and the wholesale price of refined products like diesel.)
EIA data suggests that refiners’ margins are expected to grow through 2026, which could soften the impact of falling crude costs on retail diesel prices. U.S. Energy Information Administration
In plain terms, even if crude oil is cheaper, refiners might keep a larger portion of the retail price due to stronger margins, which could keep diesel prices from falling as fast as some forecasts suggest.
What This Means for Trucking & Logistics
1. Planning for Lower Fuel Expenses
If diesel prices do average below recent levels (potentially in the mid-$3 per gallon range) trucking companies could see a welcome decline in one of their largest operating costs. This may provide opportunities to:
Reduce overall operating expenses
Improve bid competitiveness for freight contracts
Reinvest fuel cost savings into fleet upgrades or technology
However, carriers should avoid over-optimizing budgets on a projected decline alone. Remember, forecasts can change quickly based on global events and demand shifts.
2. Fuel Surcharge Strategies May Shift
Fuel surcharge models often tie directly to weekly or monthly diesel price benchmarks. With downward pressure on fuel costs, shippers and carriers may consider revisiting fuel surcharge structures to keep rates competitive while accurately reflecting market changes.
Trucking businesses can also use a 2026 outlook to educate customers and negotiate more transparent fuel surcharges in long-term contracts.
3. Geopolitical & Market Risks Still Matter
While many forecasts show diesel prices trending lower, it’s important to remember that risks remain:
OPEC+ production decisions or unexpected supply curbs can quickly change price dynamics.
Geopolitical tensions can disrupt refining or shipping routes.
Domestic policy changes, such as fuel taxes or new blending mandates, can influence costs.
For example, legislators and industry coalitions are actively debating biofuel blending mandates for 2026, which could subtly impact distillate markets. Reuters
Emerging Trends That Could Affect Diesel Demand
Looking beyond price, another trend to monitor is the shift toward alternative powertrains, especially electric trucks.
Countries like China are rapidly electrifying heavy-duty vehicle fleets, a trend that analysts say could significantly reduce diesel consumption in one of the world’s largest freight markets. AP News
While widespread adoption of EV trucks in the U.S. is still in early stages, advancements in this space could gradually reshape diesel demand over the medium term. This is especially true if lower operating costs for electric vehicles begin to outweigh diesel’s traditional advantages in certain freight segments.
What Logistics Leaders Should Do Now
Here are some practical steps trucking companies and shippers can take in light of the 2026 diesel price outlook:
✔ Reevaluate Fuel Budgets
Plan multiple scenarios: best-case, base, and worst-case for fuel costs in 2026 to stress-test your business model.
✔ Update Contracts with Forward Thinking
Consider adding clauses or protections that reflect more stable or declining fuel costs, and negotiate fuel surcharges that are fair, transparent, and aligned with projected price trends.
✔ Monitor Market Signals Weekly
Fuel markets react quickly to news about crude production, refinery capacity, inventories, and policy moves. A weekly review of fuel price benchmarks and crude market developments will keep your strategy agile.
✔ Consider Operational Efficiency Investments
If prices are lower, that’s an opportunity to invest savings into efficiency, like route optimization software, telematics, or even exploring electric or hybrid trucks for shorter routes.
Looking Ahead
Looking toward 2026, many indicators suggest that diesel fuel prices will be lower than recent years, reflecting broad trends in crude oil supply and global markets. However, this outlook is shaped by a wide set of variables, from refinery margins to EV adoption and international energy policy.
For trucking companies, shippers, and logistics planners, the key takeaway is to plan proactively rather than reactively. Diesel price forecasts can help guide budgeting, contract negotiations, and investment decisions, but flexibility remains crucial in a changing fuel landscape.
If diesel fuel prices are part of your cost equation, they should be part of your logistics strategy. TOP Worldwide helps shippers plan smarter, move freight efficiently, and stay competitive no matter where fuel prices go next. Talk with our team about building a more fuel-efficient freight plan today.
Jeff Berlin
is the Chief Operating Officer of E.L. Hollingsworth & Co. and serves as the Senior Operations Executive for TOP Worldwide and Native American Logistics. With over 30 years of experience leading logistics and trucking companies, he brings deep industry expertise to his role. Jeff is also a CDL-A driver and a private pilot.
Have a question about freight? Call or text Jeff directly at (810) 656-6343 or jberlin@elhc.net.